16 Nobel Prize-winning economists letter warns Trump policies
文章來源: 風蕭蕭_Frank 於 2024-06-26 14:14:42
We the undersigned
16 位諾貝爾經濟學獎得主遇見特朗普通貨膨脹炸彈
信息由 2001 年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主約瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨率先發出
1... George A. Akerlof (2001)
University of California, Berkeley
Department of Economics
Tel No. (510) 642-5837 Fax No. (510) 642-6615
akerlof@econ.berkeley.edu
2... Sir Angus Deaton (2015)
School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
deaton@princeton.edu, lmitrano@princeton.edu
3... Claudia Goldin (2023)
Henry Lee Professor of Economics, Harvard University
cgoldin@harvard.edu, edietzel@fas.harvard.edu, edietzel@fas.harvard.edu
4... Sir Oliver Hart (2016)
Lewis P. and Linda L. Geyser University Professor, Harvard University,
ohart@harvard.edu
Tel: 617-496-3461 Fax: 617-495-7730
uferraro@fas.harvard.edu
5... Eric S. Maskin (2007)
Adams University Professor, Harvard University,
emaskin@fas.harvard.edu
Tel: 617-495-1746, Fax: 617-495-7730
rtshonas@fas.harvard.edu
6... Daniel L. McFadden (2000)
E. Morris Cox Professor Emeritus of Economics
Presidential Professor of Health Economics at USC
University of California, Berkeley
Department of Economics
Tel No. (510) 643-8428
Fax No. (510) 642-0638
mcfadden@econ.berkeley.edu
7... Paul R. Milgrom (2020)
Professor, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
8... Roger B. Myerson (2007)
Roger Myerson, Professor of Global Conflict Studies, University of Chicago
rmyerson@uchicago.edu
9... Edmund S. Phelps (2006)
Edmund S. Phelps, professor International Affairs, Center on Capitalism and Society at Columbia University
Phone: 212-854-2060
Fax: 212-854-3735
Email: esp2@columbia.edu
10... Paul M. Romer (2018)
Professor Center for the Economics of Ideas, Boston College
Tele: 617-552-3985
paul.romer@bc.edu
11... Alvin E. Roth (2012)
Alvin E. Rothm Professor of Economics, Stanford University
Phone: 650-725-9147
Email: alroth@stanford.edu
12... William F. Sharpe (1990)
William F. Sharpe, Professor of Finance, Stanford University
13... Robert J. Shiller (2013)
Robert J. Shiller, Sterling Professor of Economics, Yale University
robert.shiller@yale.edu
Tele: (203) 432-3708
Fax: (203) 432-6167
Scoop: 16 Nobel economists see a Trump inflation bomb
Hans Nichols Jun 25, 2024 - Politics & Policy
Sixteen Nobel prize-winning economists are jumping into the presidential campaign with a stark warning: Former President Trump's plans would reignite inflation and cause lasting harm to the global economy if he wins in November.
Why it matters: The Nobel laureates are lending their academic prestige to a political argument the Biden administration has been making for weeks: Inflation would be worse under Trump.
•"While each of us has different views on the particulars of various economic policies, we all agree that Joe Biden's economic agenda is vastly superior to Donald Trump," the 16 economists write in a letter, first obtained by Axios.
Zoom in: Since prices spiked in the summer of 2022, Democrats have been playing defense on the economy.
•But their various explanations — including a brief embrace of the term "Bidenomics" and big media buys — don't seem to have worked.
•Voters aren't vibing with an economy that the White House says is great.
•Now Biden's team wants to go on offense and draw attention to Trump's actual proposals — including his plans to impose fresh 10% duties on all imports, and minimum 60% tariffs on Chinese goods.
Driving the news: The economists' claim is part of a broader attempt by Biden's campaign to turn the 2024 election into a choice between the two candidates' plans for the future — and not necessarily a referendum on Biden's record.
•"We believe that a second Trump term would have a negative impact on the U.S.'s economic standing in the world, and a destabilizing effect on the U.S.'s domestic economy," the economists write in the letter.
•"Many Americans are concerned about inflation, which has come down remarkably fast. There is rightly a worry that Donald Trump will reignite this inflation, with his fiscally irresponsible budgets," they write.
The message was spearheaded by Joseph Stiglitz, who won the Nobel prize for economics in 2001.
•He was joined by George A. Akerlof (2001), Sir Angus Deaton (2015), Claudia Goldin (2023), Sir Oliver Hart (2016), Eric S. Maskin (2007), Daniel L. McFadden (2000), Paul R. Milgrom (2020), Roger B. Myerson (2007), Edmund S. Phelps (2006), Paul M. Romer (2018), Alvin E. Roth (2012), William F. Sharpe (1990), Robert J. Shiller (2013), Christopher A. Sims (2011), and Robert B. Wilson (2020).
State of play: The economy is expected to be a focus of Thursday night's presidential debate, and both candidates are sharpening their approach to pocketbook issues.
•Besides promising corporate America to lower its tax rate from 21% to 20%, Trump wants to eliminate taxes on tipped wages for workers in the leisure and hospitality industries.
•Biden is sticking with his plan to raise taxes on corporations — and his promise that households who make less than $400,000 a year wouldn't see a tax increase.
•Looming behind both approaches is a federal debt that continues to grow, with tax cuts and spending in Trump's first term adding nearly twice to the debt as much as Biden's, according to a new nonpartisan analysis.
Zoom out: Biden has presided over a period of solid growth, a strong labor market, and stubbornly high inflation.
•Voters don't give him much credit for the first two but they blame him for the third, telling pollsters that high prices are a major source of their economic unease. More than half of voters (wrongly) think the U.S. is in a recession.
•Some 68% of Americans still think the economy is "not so good" or "poor" according to a recent Fox News survey. The remaining 32% of voters say it's "excellent" or "good."
•And that poll showed some improvement over earlier and grimmer surveys.
The Biden administration is trying to meet voters halfway, asking them to accept that inflation has come down while acknowledging there's more work to do.
•Officials also are using the levers they have to try to convince voters that they're focused on lowering prices. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's on Monday announced a $100 million plan to support affordable housing financing.
•The White House also is going negative, warning that a Trump presidency would take inflation to new heights and that Jan. 6-style attacks on democratic institutions could undermine global economic stability.
16 Nobel Prize-winning economists warn that Trump's economic plans could reignite inflation
Sixteen of the world's most notable economists — all Nobel Prize winners — are warning that former President Donald Trump could stoke inflation if he wins the presidency in November and moves forward with his economic plans.
"Many Americans are concerned about inflation, which has come down remarkably fast. There is rightly a worry that Donald Trump will reignite this inflation, with his fiscally irresponsible budgets," according to a letter signed by the economists, who include Joseph Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor who won the Nobel prize for economics in 2001; and Yale professor Robert Shiller, who won the Nobel prize for economics in 2013.
The warning comes as the U.S. continues to battle sticky inflation, with the Federal Reserve maintaining the highest interest rates in more than two decades with the goal of cooling the economy and driving inflation down to a 2% annual rate. Even though inflation has cooled from a recent peak of 9.1% in June 2022, inflation-weary Americans are glum about the economy, with 6 in 10 rating it as either bad, fairly bad or very bad, according to the latest CBS News poll.
Trump's policies could prove to be inflationary, other economists also warned, such as his proposal to create a 10% across-the-board tariff on all imports to deporting immigrants. The tariff plan would add $1,700 in annual costs for the typical U.S. household, essentially acting as an inflationary tax, according to experts at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Deporting immigrants could shrink the labor force, creating more competition for U.S. workers and pushing up wages, also adding to inflationary pressure, economists warn.
While the letter from Stiglitz and the other 15 Nobel Prize winners didn't detail the specifics of any part of Trump's plans, it did single out praise for some of President Joe Biden's economic policies, ranging from his Inflation Reduction Act to investment in U.S. manufacturing.
"In his first four years as President, Joe Biden signed into law major investments in the U.S. economy, including in infrastructure, domestic manufacturing and climate," the letter said. "Together, these investments are likely to increase productivity and economic growth while lowering long-term inflationary pressures and facilitating the clean energy transition."
They added, "While each of us has different views on the particulars of various economic policies, we all agree that Joe Biden's economic agenda is vastly superior to Donald Trump's."
"Top economists, Nobel Prize winners, and business leaders all know America can't afford Trump's dangerous economic agenda," Biden campaign spokesperson, James Singer, told CBS MoneyWatch.
"In Donald Trump's America, the rich pay less, and working Americans pay more," he added.
"The American people don't need worthless out-of-touch Nobel Prize winners to tell them which president put more money in their pockets," Trump campaign national press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in an emailed statement to CBS MoneyWatch.
If re-elected, Trump plans to implement a "pro-growth, pro-energy, pro-jobs agenda to bring down the cost of living and uplift all Americans," she added.
"We the undersigned": Read the letter
You can read the text of the letter below:
We the undersigned are deeply concerned about the risks of a second Trump administration for the U.S. economy.
Among the most important determinants of economic success are the rule of law and economic and political certainty. For a country like the U.S., which is embedded in deep relationships with other countries, conforming to international norms and having normal and stable relationships with other countries is also an imperative. Donald Trump and the vagaries of his actions and policies threaten this stability and the U.S.'s standing in the world.
While each of us has different views on the particulars of various economic policies, we all agree that Joe Biden's economic agenda is vastly superior to Donald Trump's. In his first four years as President, Joe Biden signed into law major investments in the U.S. economy, including in infrastructure, domestic manufacturing, and climate. Together, these investments are likely to increase productivity and economic growth while lowering long-term inflationary pressures and facilitating the clean energy transition.
During Joe Biden's presidency we have also seen a remarkably strong and equitable labor market recovery — enabled by his pandemic stimulus. An additional four years of Joe Biden's presidency would allow him to continue supporting an inclusive U.S. economic recovery.
Many Americans are concerned about inflation, which has come down remarkably fast. There is rightly a worry that Donald Trump will reignite this inflation, with his fiscally irresponsible budgets. Nonpartisan researchers, including at Evercore, Allianz, Oxford Economics, and the Peterson Institute, predict that if Donald Trump successfully enacts his agenda, it will increase inflation.
The outcome of this election will have economic repercussions for years, and possibly decades, to come. We believe that a second Trump term would have a negative impact on the U.S.'s economic standing in the world and a destabilizing effect on the U.S.'s domestic economy.
Signed,
George A. Akerlof (2001)
University of California, Berkeley
Department of Economics
Tel No. (510) 642-5837 Fax No. (510) 642-6615
akerlof@econ.berkeley.edu
Sir Angus Deaton (2015)
School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
deaton@princeton.edu, lmitrano@princeton.edu
Claudia Goldin (2023)
Henry Lee Professor of Economics, Harvard University
cgoldin@harvard.edu, edietzel@fas.harvard.edu, edietzel@fas.harvard.edu