His rationale is threefold, and includes each side being “very close to the other’s red lines”, while using brinksmanship to push the other “at the risk of crossing each other’s red lines”, with politics likely to cause more aggressive brinksmanship over the next 18 months.
“They are very close to crossing red lines that, if crossed, will irrevocably push them over the brink into some type of war that damages these two countries and causes damage to the world order in severe and irrevocable ways – like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine did for Russia and the world, just much bigger,” Mr Dalio said.
The White House’s top Asia diplomat, Kurt Campbell, last month expressed hope that China and the US could reopen channels of communication within a few months following a hiatus initially triggered by former US Speaker of the House’s visit to Taiwan, and prolonged by a Chinese spy balloon over mainland America.
“I think you will see in the coming months whether it’s going to be possible to reestablish effective, predictable, constructive diplomacy between the United States and China,” Mr Campbell told the Centre for a New American Security last month.