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mu的股價去年11月下旬達到曆史高點50以後,回調幅度達20%。此後12月18日季報,當季的盈利和下個季度的預期均超過分析師的預期20%。但是超好的季報數據沒有能夠提振mu的股價,股價二次探底,直到年後mu連續三天強反彈,漲幅達14%。上周五,mu股價逆勢下跌2%(見圖)。現在發現,mu的股價大起大落,和它近期FA變化有關。mu的主要產品dram屬於大宗物質,價格依賴市場供求而變化。dram價格指數圖顯示,去年十月下旬開始到年末,dram的價格失去前期的上升動力,一直走平(見圖)。根據此點,分析師下調了mu的評級,從而導致mu的股價大幅回調。在新的一年,市場對dram的需求仍然表現強勁,dram股價指數dxi突漲9%(見下圖),這就是mu年後三天大漲14%的原因。上周五mu逆勢下跌的原因,可以從TA角度解釋。上周四mu收盤在46.9,恰好處於W型底部的頸線位置,上周五mu股價回落,可以看作是正常的回踩過程。如無意外,mu下周應當越過頸線阻力區,衝擊前期高點50。上周五mu股價下跌2.3%的另一個可能的解釋是mu的option賣方MM為了殺到期的巨量call而有意殺跌mu股價。上周五到期的mu45.5call和46.0call的OP分別是一萬八千和一萬一千(見下表)。周五mu收盤在45.8,上述巨量call歸零。Jan 12 到期mu call的OP的量比 Jan 5 到期的call的OP數量明顯少,對下周mu股價的牽製作用可能要減少。Jan 19到期的mu 46.0call和46.5call分別是6萬5千和二萬六千。因此,mu在Jan 19 的收盤價有可能被MM控製在46.0附近。上麵的假設是否正確,拭目以待。個人看法,不做投資依據。
xx
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MU
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45.80
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45.81
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45.80
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-1.08
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-2.30
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100X4000
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46.655
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45.3752
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46,455,697
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Fri Jan 5 2018 4:01:11 pm ET|
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MU Jan 5 2018
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0 Days to Expiration (Weeklys)
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Expand Collapse
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Calls
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|
Bid
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|
Ask
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Last
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Change
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|
Vol
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|
Op Int
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44.5 Call
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1.24
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|
1.34
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|
1.36
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|
-1.06
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|
712
|
|
5,339
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|
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45.0 Call
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0.74
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0.84
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|
0.77
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-1.16
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2,293
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7,147
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45.5 Call
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0.24
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0.34
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0.30
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-1.15
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4,624
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18,295
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46.0 Call
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0.00
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0.01
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0.01
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-1.01
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10,345
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11,069
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46.5 Call
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0.00
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0.01
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0.01
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-0.66
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7,048
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4,449
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47.0 Call
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0.00
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|
0.01
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0.01
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-0.39
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3,616
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4,418
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Strike
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44.50
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45.00
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45.50
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46.00
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46.50
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47.00
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Puts
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Bid
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Ask
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Last
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Change
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Vol
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Op Int
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44.5 Put
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0.00
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0.02
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0.02
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-0.02
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2,018
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1,862
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45.0 Put
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0.00
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0.01
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|
0.01
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-0.04
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1,758
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2,515
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45.5 Put
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0.00
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0.02
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0.01
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-0.06
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4,011
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1,723
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46.0 Put
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0.17
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0.24
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0.22
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0.08
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9,413
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4,372
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46.5 Put
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0.67
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0.74
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0.65
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0.36
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2,732
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1,422
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47.0 Put
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1.17
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1.26
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1.22
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0.70
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822
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|
624
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Color indicates options that are in-the-money Indicates non-standard option
The in-the-money indication does not apply to non-standard options.
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MU Jan 12 2018
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7 Days to Expiration (Weeklys)
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Calls
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Bid
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Ask
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Last
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Change
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Vol
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Op Int
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44.5 Call
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1.71
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1.78
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1.75
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-1.01
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541
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2,372
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|
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45.0 Call
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1.41
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|
1.43
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|
1.41
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-0.95
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2,493
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4,770
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45.5 Call
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1.11
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|
1.13
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|
1.11
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-0.88
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2,082
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|
1,594
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|
|
46.0 Call
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|
0.85
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|
0.87
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|
0.86
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|
-0.82
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|
6,906
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|
3,087
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|
|
46.5 Call
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|
0.65
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|
0.67
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|
0.65
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|
-0.74
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|
4,351
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1,488
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|
|
47.0 Call
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|
0.48
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|
0.51
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|
0.50
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-0.63
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|
3,931
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|
2,425
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|
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Strike
|
44.50
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45.00
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45.50
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46.00
|
46.50
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47.00
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Color indicates options that are in-the-money Indicates non-standard option
The in-the-money indication does not apply to non-standard options.
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MU Jan 19 2018
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14 Days to Expiration
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Expand Collapse
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Calls
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Bid
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Ask
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Last
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Change
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Vol
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Op Int
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|
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44.5 Call
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|
2.12
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|
2.15
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|
2.10
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|
-0.98
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|
511
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|
2,180
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|
|
45.0 Call
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|
1.80
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|
1.84
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|
1.79
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|
-0.93
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|
7,309
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|
51,816
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|
|
45.5 Call
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|
1.52
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|
1.55
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|
1.52
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|
-0.86
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|
1,423
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2,216
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|
|
46.0 Call
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|
1.28
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|
1.30
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|
1.27
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|
-0.80
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|
5,056
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65,013
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|
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46.5 Call
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|
1.04
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|
1.08
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|
1.05
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|
-0.75
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|
2,073
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|
25,928
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|
|
47.0 Call
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|
0.86
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|
0.89
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|
0.87
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|
-0.68
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|
2,971
|
|
15,594
|
|
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Strike
|
44.50
|
45.00
|
45.50
|
46.00
|
46.50
|
47.00
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Color indicates options that are in-the-money Indicates non-standard option
The in-the-money indication does not apply to non-standard options.
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xx
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