這2018年看似好年啊，開門紅啊，才半個月，股市就創新高，截至一月十七日，道瓊已經突破26000點，而且是在短短的八天期間上漲1000點，突破曆史上23天漲1000點的速度。

 

據報道，2017年道瓊指數漲幅25%, 納斯達克上漲28%, S &P 500漲了19% 。 自2017年來，幾乎每天聽到的都是好消息啊，什麽失業率低，通脹指數低，就業率高，消費者的信心足 。加上年底稅改的通過，說是$1.4萬億的現金要流回美國，讓你感覺美國好像馬上又要遍地是金子，流回來的錢讓大地富得冒油似的，好一派鶯歌燕舞的大好時代。 

 

而我一個膽小保守的人，一個一遭被蛇咬，十年怕井繩的人，此時卻想起2000年前後，自己剛到美國沒幾年時的情景。那時家裏就一人工作，看著紅火的股市動心了，將省吃儉用的一點錢投到世紀末瘋狂的科技股中，那時Qualcomm一天漲過$100的瘋狂，等到2001年泡沫破裂，又目睹科技股從幾百塊跌到幾分的觸目驚心，錢當然是沒有賺到，不過從指尖滑過，眼睜睜地看著它如飛灰煙滅，那種感覺一輩子都忘不了。 

 

又想起2008年的金融風暴。那幾年我在一家大型的次貸公司做。一日，我收到別的部門中國同事的郵件，說剛剛聽說公司可能貸不到款，讓我趕緊收拾私人物品，說不定明天就不讓來公司了。公司第二天倒是沒有關門，但沒多久的一天中午，整個部門的人集中在二樓聽大頭宣布公司破產並購的消息。記得二樓的大廳裏有台大電視，新聞不停地在播股市連日創新低，那個一落千丈的箭頭讓人瞠目結舌, 心慌不已。今日查了Wikipedia， 2008年十月6日至10日，一星期裏道瓊跌18%, 1874點，S&P 500一星期裏跌20%，到2009三月六日, 道瓊跌了54%,  隻剩6469點。我那家上班的公司，那時的行業老大，曾經那麽風光，麵對風暴，手足無措，如一葉小舟被颶風卷起，拋至高空再甩入海底，沉沒於汪洋中再也沒有翻身。那個曾經擁有直升飛機的創始人兩年後也得癌症去世了。這些發生在我身邊的事，今日想起還曆曆在目。

 

還有2015年，正逢中國的股市如火如荼，我從爬山隊友那兒聽到這樣一句話，“下一輪中國的新貴應該是從股市上冒出來”。我信以為真，忘了曾經的傷痛，將自己在國內僅有的一些錢買做股票，夢想著趕上那趟國內發財致富的快車，成為小新貴，結果股票至今還套在那裏。

 

但願曆史不再重演。

 

我不知道現在是真的是歌舞升平，江山一片紅，還是暴風雨來臨前的繁榮，那種山雨欲來風滿樓的節奏，那種撒網讓小魚們都跳進來然後哢嚓一聲收口的忽悠，還是Trump打造的盛世真的來臨了？    

 

其實這世界看不懂的豈止是股市，難道房市看得懂嗎？寫下這篇，不知道自己是不是在杞人憂天，權當是拋磚引玉，警醒自己。但願我們今日不是坐在雲端上，有一天忽地又被拋到地麵了。

 

以上是昨天晚上和今天中午寫的。剛剛下班前看到今日的華爾街日報上有一篇文章關於股市(摘錄在下麵)。大意就是說，人們的貪婪欲望在上升，很多人生怕錯過這趟列車，也紛紛跳進股市。原先預計的股市的好光景會持續到2018年的第二季度，現在一月份最新的預測是好光景會持續到2019年了。我們且拭目以待。看來這世道就是要撐死膽大的，餓死膽小的，嗬嗬。

 

With Dow raced 25% higher, S&P 500 zoomed 19% and Nasdaq jumped an impressive 28%, the stock market had its best year in 2017. “The index breezed through milestones”, and its momentum was carried over into 2018, when Dow soared to new high of 26000 this Wednesday. It was said that it took only eight days for Dow to rise 1000 points, an unprecedented pace compared with the shortest 23 days in the history.

Let's look at more good statistics below:

******************************************

“The S&P 500 stock index gained more than 200% in the seven years from 2009 to the month before the 2016 election. By now the total increase is more than 300%”. (WSJ 01/17/2018)

“The price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is now 26.8, higher than at any time in the 100 years before 1998 and 70% above its historical average.” (WSJ 01/17/2018)

It had taken the Dow 14 years to climb from 10,000 to 15,000, but just three and a half years to reach 20,000 in 2017.

At nearly nine years old, the bull market is now the second-oldest and second-strongest in history.

Trump has repeatedly bragged about roaring stock prices. "70 Record Closes for the Dow so far this year!" Trump tweeted on December 18， 2017. He added, "Wow!"

******************************************

I understand that the biggest catalyst is the sweeping corporate tax cut signed into the law at the end of 2017, which will expect to bring back the mountain of offshore cash of about $1.4 trillion to the U.S.

While “most market strategists predicted more gains in 2018, especially as the impact of the tax overhaul are felt”, Martin Feldstein, a professor at Harvard shouted out in January 17, 2018 edition of Wall Street Journal that “Stocks Are Headed for a Fall”.

 I know I am a conservative person. Since the stock market crashed in 2001, I have refrained myself from investing more in the market ever since, except the roll-over 401K from the previous companies.  I know I missed the ride, but at least that gave me a peace of mind.  I don't know what strategy or advice we shall follow in 2018. Timing the market is not something we are good at. So the best strategy maybe is to stay put what we have in the market, and wait and see?

******************************************

Below is an article excerpt from 1/18/2018 WSJ

‘Melt-up’ powers Dow past 26000

Mood shifts to greed from fear, as investors don’t want to miss out on continuing rally.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 26000 for the first time on Wednesday, sprinting to a 1000-point milestone just eight trading days after toppling the previous one, its fastest run ever.

The most recent gains have been propelled in part by a sudden hunger for stocks among certain money managers and individual investors who have long been wary of the nearly nine-year bull market.

Some market observers have dubbed this phenomenon “Fear of Missing Out,” as stock-market records fall on a almost weekly basis. Others refer to a “melt-up” market, where the prevailing mood is shifting to greed from fear and investors stampeded in without worrying much about valuation and fundamentals.

The majority of investors who participated in a January poll said they expect the stock market to peak in 2019 or beyond. A month ago, the majority expected a top in the second quarter of 2018.

Some say the quick rise is a little too reminiscent of the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite’s run in late 199 and early 2000.