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為什麽說EIA 每個月的Natural Gas Drilling Productivity Report 是係統性的造假。
EIA每個月都會公布下一個月的天然氣產量預估值,這信息可以從EIA的官方網站https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/#tabs-summary-2 看到。以下是從一月份到四月份 EIA的估計值。 俺要大家注意的是每個表的最後一排Total(紅色字體)。在一月份時,EIA估計2月份岩頁氣的產量為43.722BCF/DAY,比一月份的數據44.127BCF減少了0.405BCF。(1BCF=1000MCF)。這看來好像是減產了0.405BCF。 但是到了2月份(第二個表),而月份實際的數據是44.706BCF/DAY,不是在一月份預估的43.722BCF/DAY。 這也可以理解,估計本來也會有錯誤。可是如果每一次的估計都是犯同樣的錯誤,每一次都估計成減產,而實際是增產。這就是係統性的錯誤! 若是明明知道了估計的方式有係統性的錯誤而不改,沒能力改,放任不改,這就是係統性的造假!
下麵的四個表太長,俺把它簡化,讓大家更容易看出來,為何不妥當。
月份 岩頁氣產量本月份的數據 岩頁氣產量下一個月的預估值
1 44.127BCF/DAY 43.722BCF/DAY
2 44.706BCF/DAY 44.255BCF/DAY
3 46.758BCF/DAY 46.308BCF/DAY
4 46.420BCF/DAY 45.929BCF/DAY
可以看出每一個月的預估值都偏低,每一個月的估計都是減產,而實際是增產。一月到4月,實際日產量從44.127 BCF升到46.420BCF, 日產量增加了2.3BCF,相當於5.2%!
EIA估計天然氣的產量不止是如此有問題,今年一月份,二月份和三月份,EIA三次修正去年(2015年)一整年的天然氣的產量數據,請看下圖。結果每次修正,產量就越高,日產量差別高達2BCF! 一年的差距就是325*2=750BCF!這樣的數據差別可以影響天然氣50%的價格差別變動!原則上EIA可以一年後繼續修改數據。
俺注意到在3月份和4/11日,幾個知名媒體剛好都報導這“天然氣減產”的消息,配合MM炒高天然氣。而過去天然氣下跌時,媒體就不報導EIA預測天然氣減產的消息。這其實是很正常的,利用媒體,散布假消息來炒作股票/期貨在全世界各國都一直在發生。隻是有些人用的方式比較高明,有些人即使作假,大家也看不出來。
|
Oil production
thousand barrels/day
|
|
Gas production
million cubic feet/day
|
Region
|
January 2016
|
February 2016
|
change
|
|
January 2016
|
February 2016
|
change
|
Bakken
|
1,122
|
1,098
|
(24)
|
|
1,580
|
1,556
|
(24)
|
Eagle Ford
|
1,217
|
1,145
|
(72)
|
|
6,597
|
6,457
|
(140)
|
Haynesville
|
52
|
51
|
(1)
|
|
6,210
|
6,226
|
16
|
Marcellus
|
50
|
48
|
(2)
|
|
15,447
|
15,222
|
(225)
|
Niobrara
|
394
|
371
|
(23)
|
|
4,174
|
4,098
|
(76)
|
Permian
|
2,035
|
2,040
|
5
|
|
6,913
|
6,914
|
1
|
Utica
|
78
|
79
|
1
|
|
3,206
|
3,249
|
43
|
Total
|
4,948
|
4,832
|
(116)
|
|
44,127
|
43,722
|
(405)
|
Oil production
thousand barrels/day
|
|
Gas production
million cubic feet/day
|
|
Region
|
February 2016
|
March 2016
|
change
|
|
February 2016
|
March 2016
|
change
|
Bakken
|
1,125
|
1,100
|
(25)
|
|
1,601
|
1,577
|
(24)
|
Eagle Ford
|
1,272
|
1,222
|
(50)
|
|
6,602
|
6,444
|
(158)
|
Haynesville
|
50
|
49
|
(1)
|
|
6,225
|
6,202
|
(23)
|
Marcellus
|
48
|
46
|
(2)
|
|
15,897
|
15,695
|
(202)
|
Niobrara
|
404
|
389
|
(15)
|
|
4,219
|
4,149
|
(70)
|
Permian
|
2,039
|
2,040
|
1
|
|
6,914
|
6,908
|
(6)
|
Utica
|
78
|
78
|
-
|
|
3,248
|
3,280
|
32
|
Total
|
5,016
|
4,924
|
(92)
|
|
44,706
|
44,255
|
(451)
|
|
Oil production
thousand barrels/day
|
|
Gas production
million cubic feet/day
|
Region
|
March 2016
|
April 2016
|
change
|
|
March 2016
|
April 2016
|
change
|
Bakken
|
1,107
|
1,079
|
(28)
|
|
1,659
|
1,632
|
(27)
|
Eagle Ford
|
1,235
|
1,177
|
(58)
|
|
6,517
|
6,335
|
(182)
|
Haynesville
|
49
|
48
|
(1)
|
|
6,204
|
6,143
|
(61)
|
Marcellus
|
41
|
41
|
-
|
|
17,427
|
17,319
|
(108)
|
Niobrara
|
423
|
408
|
(15)
|
|
4,246
|
4,170
|
(76)
|
Permian
|
2,040
|
2,036
|
(4)
|
|
7,082
|
7,064
|
(18)
|
Utica
|
82
|
82
|
-
|
|
3,623
|
3,645
|
22
|
Total
|
4,977
|
4,871
|
(106)
|
|
46,758
|
46,308
|
(450)
|
Oil production
thousand barrels/day
|
|
Gas production
million cubic feet/day
|
|
Region
|
April 2016
|
May 2016
|
change
|
|
April 2016
|
May 2016
|
change
|
Bakken
|
1,078
|
1,047
|
(31)
|
|
1,633
|
1,601
|
(32)
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Eagle Ford
|
1,246
|
1,184
|
(62)
|
|
6,405
|
6,192
|
(213)
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Haynesville
|
48
|
47
|
(1)
|
|
6,099
|
6,036
|
(63)
|
Marcellus
|
41
|
41
|
-
|
|
17,337
|
17,277
|
(60)
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Niobrara
|
420
|
404
|
(16)
|
|
4,217
|
4,134
|
(83)
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Permian
|
2,036
|
2,032
|
(4)
|
|
7,064
|
7,023
|
(41)
|
Utica
|
81
|
81
|
-
|
|
3,665
|
3,666
|
1
|
Total
|
4,950
|
4,836
|
(114)
|
|
46,420
|
45,929
|
(491)
|
|
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