前幾天,大千有位高手發帖說,趨勢的天敵是震蕩,震蕩的天敵是趨勢。
趨勢與震蕩的關係是魚與熊掌的關係,往往不可兼得。人心總是貪婪的,讀帖之後,一直在想,到底有沒有一種方法可以同時掌控K線的趨勢與震蕩?
我找到的方法是:K線四分法。一般的K線分為上升趨勢與下降趨勢兩類。這樣當震蕩幅度擴大的時候,往往會頻頻止損。K線四分法,就是把K線分為直線上升,震蕩上升,直線下降,震蕩下降四類。這樣,既能順勢交易,又能在震蕩來臨的時候,確保倉位。
現以科技股為例,展示一下K線四分法的具體應用。
下圖是美股主要科技股的趨勢分析。其中,15個為直線上升型,10個為震蕩上升型,2個為震蕩下跌型,3個為直線下跌型。
操作方法是,在震蕩上升是買入或加倉,在直線上升時,讓利潤奔跑,K線轉為下跌型態時及時止損。
(此為拋磚引玉,不足之處,請大家補充。)
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STRAIGHT UP |
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100% |
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100% |
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100% |
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93% |
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73% |
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67% |
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60% |
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47% |
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47% |
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40% |
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40% |
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20% |
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20% |
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13% |
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AAPL |
107% |
CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
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67% |
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60% |
CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
ADP |
60% |
CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
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53% |
CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
GOOGL |
5% |
CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
GOOG |
5% |
CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
MDLZ |
5% |
CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
COST |
5% |
CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
INTU |
5% |
CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
CMCSA |
-27% |
CONSOLIDATING (TREND DOWN) |
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-47% |
CONSOLIDATING (TREND DOWN) |
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STRAIGHT DOWN |
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STRAIGHT DOWN |
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