炒股不可以沒有預測。所有操作都是建立在預測基礎之上的操作,沒有預測就談不上操作。但是那種追求語不驚人誓不休的精確預測則是一種害人害己的行為。
一,預測越精確炒股越賺不到錢。對K線圖的預測是一種模糊預測,精確預測是一種畫蛇添足的行為。無論畫工的技藝多高,給蛇添上足,這行為本身已經讓畫工立於必敗之地。
![](data:image/jpeg;base64,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)
二,預測越精確對自己的傷害越深。預測精確,容易讓自己陷入自戀的境地,然後是自信與自傲,最後是自殘。大千預測最精確的莫過於少俠,做空的正確率達90%以上。大千無出其右。但是,這次在SP2163全倉做空,到周五收盤,已經淪陷20個點。
三,預測越精確對別人的傷害越深。預測精確的股神總能招到大批的崇拜者與跟風者。大千層出不窮的眾股神,無一不是以折戟沉沙收場,股神們的很多跟風者更是落得屍骨全無。
其實,最好的預測就是一種對趨勢的總體把握。大千那些精確預測者,特別是那些能夠預測到小數點後兩位的股神們,總是拒絕談論趨勢。這也從一個反麵證明了那些股神的精確預測與股市正常的預測是南轅北轍。
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