李敏雯(2011-09-23)

　　國際產業顧問總裁邱瑞榮說，這意味著，本地私宅在100萬元的價位有很強勁的支持，即使歐美經濟局勢惡化，中高檔私宅價格也將能在該價位的基礎上繼續堅挺。

　　他也指出，在2007年的房地產高峰期，代表大眾化私宅的中央區以外（Outside Central Region，簡稱OCR），平均售價隻有每平方英尺600元，今年第二季已達到887元。

　　不過市場供應最充裕的熱區在榜鵝、盛港和白沙，麵對價格下調的風險也正在加大。

　 　國際產業顧問公司與新加坡公寓有限公司（Singapore Condo Pte Ltd）發布的最新研究數據顯示，今年第二季，每個位於中央區以外、即大眾化私宅平均成交額首次達到103萬元，高於首季的98萬9000元。該報告是根 據市區重建局的轉售禁令所得的數據，這包括發展商售出的新私宅和轉售私宅。

　　這個總價自去年第一季開始，一直呈上升趨勢，從90萬9000元逐漸攀升至今年次季的103萬元。

　　今年第二季，大眾化私宅平均麵積達1157平方英尺，較前個季度的1122個有所增加，但整體上私宅平均麵積大小自去年首季開始就呈下跌趨勢。

　　也是房地產暢銷書《Real Estate Riches》作者的邱瑞榮說，投資者一般上已對每平方英尺1000元的郊外公寓司空見慣。

　 　靠近裕廊湖區的湖畔雅居（The Lakefront Residences）第二季的售價介於每平方英尺940元至1352元。4月至6月間，Clementiwoods在轉售市場的尺價為每平方英尺990 元至1071元。實裏達路的The Greenwich售價也超過每平方英尺1000元。

　　不過以供應量來看，供應最集中的熱區榜鵝、盛港和白沙新鎮，占了私宅總供應量的四分之一，即8102個單位。若將組屋供應一並考慮在內，這些地區的供應量將上揚到總體住宅市場供應量的38％，即約2萬8000個單位。

　　邱瑞榮認為，這個情況令人擔憂，因為該區的基礎設施如輕軌、周圍設施等都還沒有到位，屆時這些地區的擁擠情況可想而知。

　　總而言之，邱瑞榮認為大眾私宅的門檻已經抬高，他建議最好還是把眼光鎖定在中央區屋齡五至十年的公寓為好。

lminwen@sph.com.sg

《聯合早報》
（編輯：楊麗娟）

Oversupply risks in Outside Central Region

The outlook for the Singapore residential property market lacks clarity and the murkiness does not seem to be clearing any time soon. Investors are looking for signals, direction and leadership. One major topic of discussion that has gained traction over the past year is pipeline supply.

It began with a discussion about the Urban Redevelopment Authority’s quarterly reports on the expected completion of units, and recently, there seems to be wider acceptance that the coming supply will be massive. But questions remain as to where the potential oversupply will be and whether it will lead to price declines.

In my previous contributions to Today, “Massive Supply to hit outskirts” (June 24) and “Let’s take a closer look at the numbers” (July 8), I highlighted concerns that the oversupply in 2013-2015 will be weighted towards the mass market segment, or Outside Central Region (OCR). Since end 2009, price increases in the OCR have outpaced the other two areas: Core Central Region (CCR) and Rest of Central Region (RCR). The price increases were partly caused by new launches in the OCR that were priced at a premium to the neighbouring projects.

OCR market hots up

The rising prices in the OCR fed upon themselves. Almost all of the Government Land Sales were concentrated in the OCR and as the new projects launched sold fast and prices achieved new highs, developers were more willing to bid higher for land. These led to higher costs which meant that the new launches had to be priced even higher.

Data compiled by property agency Singapore Condo shows 3,931 apartments and condominium units changed hands in the OCR in 2Q2011. Some 28 per cent of these transacted at S$1,000 per sq ft or higher and the average price per unit in OCR rose past S$1 million. Mr Vince Chen, chief investment officer of Singapore Condo, said 175 units, or more than 4 per cent, sold above S$1,300 psf and that more than half of the properties transacted were still under construction.

Investors are used to seeing residential prices around S$1,000 psf across Singapore. However, most would be surprised that significant numbers transacted in OCR have increased to these levels. During the previous peak four years ago, OCR locations were transacted at S$600 psf on average and today, they are at S$S887 psf.

Punggol, Sengkang and Pasir Ris stand out

The numbers in Table 2 and Table 3 indicate continued strength in OCR transactions and prices. Yet the risks seem compounded when we view the rising prices alongside the threat of oversupply in OCR. Three adjacent planning areas, when taken together, stand out as having the highest concentration of residential units in the pipeline: Punggol, Sengkang and Pasir Ris.

Some 25 per cent, or 8,102 units, of the private home supply within OCR (32,751 units) is concentrated in these three areas. The proportion rises to 38 per cent (estimated 28,000 out of 74,185 units) when we include the strong supply of public housing.

We must be mindful that this is a simple snapshot of the seemingly high supply and a casual observation that the concentration of this supply falls within the three planning areas of Sengkang, Punggol and Pasir Ris. Without a detailed look at population growth and potential demand, we are not able to infer that it may translate into downward pressure on prices.

However, one point does worry me: With 28,000 households coming up in Sengkang, Punggol and Pasir Ris, will the quality of life be compromised? Will there be enough schools and medical facilities in these neighbourhoods? Also, will the already stretched transport infrastructure in these areas be tested to the extreme?

I leave you to digest the data and draw your own conclusions about the risks. In the next few years, I will be sticking with the five- to 10-year-old properties in the central regions.

By Ku Swee Yong – founder of real estate agency International Property Advisor. He is the author of Real Estate Riches: Understanding Singapore’s Property Market in a Volatile Economy.