(2010-12-22)

在超越了2007年的巔峰之後，本地私人共管公寓的轉售市場在第四季碰到了一道阻力牆，其價格多呈膠著狀態。然而在同期，有地住宅的轉售價卻激增。 　　戴德梁行（DTZ）昨天發表的第四季轉售私宅價格數據顯示，所有私宅領域的價格漲幅在本季持平。 　　其中，在過去兩季領導價格漲勢的99年地契郊區私人公寓，轉售價在第四季維持上一季的水平不變，報每平方英尺660元。 　　而第9、第10和第11郵區的黃金地段私宅，尺價較上一季僅稍微上漲了0.4％，達1520元。 　　這兩個私宅領域的平均價格水平，都超越了2007年的巔峰，在今年全年共上漲了約8％。 　　戴德梁行指出，本地郊區和黃金地段的私宅轉售價，在過去七個季度以來，分別上漲了18％和36％，而目前碰到一道阻力牆。 　　這是由於買家在政府8月底推出降溫措施後變得更為謹慎、會作比較和選擇，偏好地點佳如靠近地鐵站、學校或金融區的項目。 　　另一方麵，高檔豪華公寓的轉售價在第四季也持平，每平方英尺報2630元，比2007年第四季創記錄的每平方英尺2800元，低了6％。 　　戴德梁行認為，盡管高檔豪華公寓市場淡靜，但仍然有吸引不少中國和印度買家，以及越來越多的基金的興趣。 　　相較於私人公寓轉售價格的紋風不動，有地住宅轉售價的走勢則截然不同。 　　戴德梁行指出，永久地契有地住宅的轉售價，在前兩個季度出現漲幅放緩的現象後，在第四季顯著上揚。從第三季的2％季比漲幅，增加到第四季的5.1％漲幅，報1693元。黃金地段以外則出現4.3％季比漲幅，尺價993元，比前一季的1.7％季比漲幅來的高。 　　數據顯示，本地永久地契有地住宅的轉售價，今年全年共上漲16％，自2009年第二季開始上漲至今，則共漲了37％。 　　戴德梁行研究部主管蔡楚芬認為，有限的供應，使永久地契有地住宅尤其是黃金地段的房地產，成為市場人士眼中寶貴的資產。 　　蔡楚芬說：“目前，有地住宅占了樓市中所有私宅供應（包括執行共管公寓）的26％，未來供應相當有限。另一方麵，政府售地計劃和集體出售活動，卻正以更快的速度，把更多非有地住宅單位注入市場。”

《聯合早報》

分析員多認為 明年私宅成交量將稍減

吳慧敏 (2010-12-21)

2010年又是一個房地產大旺年，不但轉售市場旺熱，房地產發展商也大豐收，所賣出的新私宅單位創下曆史新高。不過，整個新加坡樓市全年估計隻有3萬6000至3萬8000個私宅單位成交，這雖然超越2009年的3萬3738個單位，但仍落後於2007年的4萬零654個單位紀錄。 　　展望2011年，大多數房地產分析員認為，新加坡雖然有望吸引到海外熱錢，不過考慮到政府可能再次出手冷卻樓市，而且大眾化私宅領域又麵對供應過剩問題，因此明年的成交量可能稍微減少。 　　根據市區重建局的數據，今年首三季一共有2萬9004個私宅單位成交。其中1萬2051個是房地產發展商賣出的新單位，另外1萬6953個單位則是轉售單位。在轉售單位中，有2579個是未完工就被屋主賣出去的“樓花”。 　　不過，由於最新出爐的市建局顯示，發展商在今年10月和11月又賣出將近3000個新私宅單位，而且房地產交易網上又已“捕抓”到10月1日知11月30日有大約2500個二手單位成交，因此高力國際研究部主管鄭惠勻估計，今年全年的整體私宅成交量可能介於3萬6000至3萬7000個。 　　展望2011年，她預測成交量將減少到3萬至3萬2000個單位，不過這仍屬於相當活躍的水平。“雖然政府可能推出更多降溫措施，但由於西方可能湧入更多熱錢，而且大中國地區實施的樓市措施或許會將一些需求轉移過來，再加上今年的政府售地計劃賣出了許多地皮，趕著在明年推出，以及良好的經濟展望和低利率環境，將為私宅市場提供支持力量，讓交易保持活躍。2011年的需求預料將維持在3萬至3萬2000個單位水平。” 　　世邦魏理仕執行董事李曉和也相信，今年全年發展商將賣出3萬5300至3萬6000個新私宅單位。如果包括執行共管公寓，那麽全年的成交量估計約3萬6450至3萬6550個單位。這包括1萬5500至1萬6000個由發展商賣出的新私宅單位、1150至1250個EC單位、1萬9800至2萬個二手單位。展望明年，他認為發展商不可能再突破今年的最高水平，明年賣出的新私宅單位估計將減少至1萬1000至1萬3000個單位。 　　戴德梁行的蔡楚芬也估計，發展商能在今年賣出1萬6000至1萬6500個新私宅單位，明年則會減少至9000至1萬2000個單位。欣樂(SLP)國際執行董事麥俊榮預測，今年的新單位需求量在1萬5000個單位以上，但明年會減少到1萬3000至1萬4000個單位。仲量聯行研究部主管蔡炎亮博士則表示，今年的新私宅需求約1萬5000至1萬6000個單位，但沒有預測明年的需求。 國際產業顧問總裁 看法最樂觀 　　國際產業顧問(IPA)總裁邱瑞榮是所有分析員中最樂觀的。他認為2010年全年的總私宅成交量可能高達3萬8000個單位，不過2011年可能減少10％至15％，達3萬3000個單位。他也猜測一些投資者可能將目光轉向價格較廉宜的海外房地產投資地點，例如倫敦。 　　唯一看好2011年成交量有望再攀高峰的，是第一太平戴維斯私宅部執行董事洪映慧。她認為，除非不可預見的因素，否則2011年的新私宅成交量應該有望在政府大量供地的刺激下，超越2010年的水平，達到1萬7000至1萬8000個單位。

《聯合早報》

市場人士:高檔公寓升大眾化跌 明年私宅價格兩極化?

(2010-12-19)

今年私宅市場的表現超越市場人士的預測，全年很可能上漲15％至17％。展望2011年，市場人士的意見不盡相同，樂觀的看好樓價還會上漲10％至20％，悲觀的認為私宅價格隻會微升不超過5％。不過，較多人看好高檔公寓的上漲趨勢。 　　不過，他們都不約而同地對幾個發展表示關注，一是西方“熱錢”將如何影響本地樓市，二是政府是否會在未來幾個月再次出手為樓市降溫，三是房貸利率是否會上調，四是政府是否會更改移民政策？ 　　市區重建局的數字顯示，今年截至第三季，本地私宅價格已經上升了14.4％。其中，有地住宅價格飆漲了24％，公寓價格攀升了12％。在公寓方麵，代表高檔公寓的核心中央區，即CCR價格上漲了11.7％，中檔公寓上漲了15.5％，大眾化公寓上漲了12.6％。 　　官方完整的2010年私宅價格數據，將在明年1月底才公布。不過，日前受訪的幾個房地產分析員都認為，第四季的樓價變動不大，估計隻攀爬多一兩個百分點，因此2010年全年的私宅價格漲幅應該在15％至17％之間。 　　高力國際（Colliers）研究與谘詢部主管鄭惠勻說：“由於政府在第四季實施了降溫措施，再加上一些房子，特別是大眾化領域開始出現價格阻力，第四季的私宅價格上漲預料會維持在0％至2％之間。” 第15郵區是本地最受歡迎的住宅區，該區有丹戎禺一帶的較貴私人公寓。今年，代表高檔公寓的核心中央區，公寓價格上漲了11.7％。（檔案照片） 　　這也就是說，今年全年的私宅價格很可能上漲15％至17％。其中，高檔公寓價格可能上漲12％至14％，中檔公寓價格可能上漲16％至18％，大眾化公寓價格可能上漲13％。 　　鄭惠勻是少數在一年前就作出相當準確預測的房地產分析員。本報在去年這個時候做了類似的調查，當時，大多數受訪的房地產分析員都看好2010的樓市將上漲，不過幅度不超過12％，隻有鄭惠勻預測2010年的樓價將上漲12％至15％。 國外“熱錢”將湧到中高檔私宅或再升10％ 　　展望明年，鄭惠勻預測，2011年的整體私宅價格指數可能再漲5％至8％。 　　她認為，西方“熱錢”和大中國地區的樓市降溫措施，可能會將錢“吸”到新加坡來，為本地的中高檔私宅價格提供支撐力量，帶動這兩個領域 的樓價再升5％至10％。不過，大眾化私宅價格則會持平，這是考慮到政府在今年賣出了大量的大眾化私宅地皮，而且又在8月30日實施了降溫措施，還一再強 調會在有必要時再次出手。 　　第一太平戴維斯（Savills）私宅部執行董事洪映慧也提到外國買家的因素，不過卻預測明年全年的私宅價格將橫擺。明年上半年的私宅價格將在起落2％至5％的窄幅內波動，進入下半年後才回升2％至5％。 　　她說，全球多個城市的房地產投資風險，已經因為當地政府收緊房地產投資條例，以及貨幣的巨大波動而大增，因此，新加坡可能在2011年 得到更多外國買家的青睞。再加上全球經濟複蘇，以及兩座IR帶動的樂觀情緒，應該能夠為新加坡的私宅市場，特別是高檔私宅領域提供支撐力量。 鄭惠勻看好的熱點地區 　　·市區核心（Downtown Core）繼續在IR和濱海灣金融商業區的帶動下，受到歡迎。 　　·丹戎巴葛區將被政府“改頭換麵”，火車站的遷移也會把一大塊重要地皮空出來，以便日後展開重建計劃，為這個靠近濱海灣和娛樂區的地帶增添更多活力。 　　·裕廊商業區和裕廊湖區還有周邊地區，包括武吉班讓和山景道一帶，都會受益於擬議中的市區武吉知馬地鐵線。 分析員看法不同 樂觀者：再漲10％ 悲觀者：不超5％ 　　分析員對於明年的樓價走勢有不同的看法，相信關鍵在於他們對上述四個國內外因素的發展作出了不同的推測。 　　德意誌摩根建富證券（DMG & Partners Securities）分析師李開安相當關注大眾化私宅的供應問題，再加上他認為政府很可能推出另一輪房地產降溫措施，所以估計明年的大眾化私宅價格會下跌10％，不過高檔公寓價格卻有望上升10％。 　　資深房地產顧問欣樂（SLP）國際執行董事麥俊榮卻認為，政府的降溫措施對樓市並沒有太深遠的影響，往往隻是稍微收斂，隨後又恢複正常。因此，他估計明年私宅價格還會上漲10％至20％，而且中高檔公寓價格會超越大眾化私宅價格的漲幅。 　　至於戴德梁行（DTZ）研究部主管蔡楚芬、世邦魏理仕（CB Richard Ellis）執行董事李曉和，以及國際產業顧問（International Property Advisor，簡稱IPA）總裁邱瑞榮則相信，明年的私宅價格漲幅不超過5％。 高力國際研究部主管鄭惠勻去年預測的樓價漲幅，最接近實際樓價漲幅。 買家須留意利息上調可能性 　　蔡楚芬認為，明年的私宅需求將隨著經濟放慢增長而減少，導致價格出現0％至5％的增長。她提醒買家密切留意利息上調的可能性，以免日後 無法應付更多的分期付款額；一旦市場過熱，政府也可能再次出手降溫。“買家也應該留意歐美經濟，因為它們的增長將影響全世界，包括新加坡。” 　　李曉和說，明年的經濟預計將增長4％至6％，假設土地價格和供應量維持穩定，私宅價格可能微升3％至5％。 　　邱瑞榮則認為，明年整體私宅價格將微漲2％至3％。這是因為市場雖然充斥不少有利因素，包括充沛的流動資金和超低位的利率環境，扶持需求保持強勁，不過供應量卻居高不下，所以價格估計沒有太大的上漲空間。 　　他還認為，明年仍然是有地住宅的天下，估計可上漲12％至15％。高檔公寓價格可能下跌2％至3％；中檔公寓價格持平；大眾化公寓價格上漲3％至5％。 　　仲量聯行（Jones Lang LaSalle）研究部主管蔡炎亮也認為，明年的私宅市場將出現兩極發展——高檔私宅價格預料可再攀升4％至6％，但是中檔和大眾化私宅價格則會維持穩定。 邱瑞榮的買屋貼士 　　如果房子買來自住，可以考慮購買大約10年屋齡的，因為這類房子的狀況還不錯，價格卻往往比鄰近新推出的項目便宜超過20％。 　　那些不介意花時間和金錢來裝修的，甚至可以考慮屋齡超過18年的房子，也就是那些在亞洲金融危機和1994至1997年屋價飆漲之前的 房子。這些房子如果還是“原裝”的，需要多花一點錢和功夫來裝修，不過價格卻比附近新項目便宜30％。如果預算許可，還可以選擇靠近烏節路但屋齡較大的房 子。 　　如果房子是買來投資的，那就必須找有好租戶和租約的房子。可以嚐試找一找屋齡在10年以下，租金收益率超過4％的99年地契公寓，又或者是租金收益率超過3.5％的永久地契公寓。 明年仍是有地住宅天下 　　明年仍然會是有地住宅的天下。目前，全島有地住宅單位不超過7萬個（包括優質洋房和99年地契舊排屋），提升者的需求估計將帶動價格再漲12％至15％。 　　最值得購買的有地住宅，應該是那些完工大約5至10年的房子。買很舊的房子來重建不是很劃算，因為老房子業主通常沒多少房貸，因此完全有實力來叫高價。 《聯合早報》 （編輯：梁嘉芪）

Regentville hits $684 psf

December 19, 2010

 

Homebuyers looking for condominiums with good amenities, accessibility and proximity to popular schools and priced under $800,000 are finding them at Regentville, on Hougang Street 92. The 580-unit 99- year leasehold development also fronts the junction of Hougang Avenue 9 and Yio Chu Kang Road.

Developed by Far East Organization, Regentville comprises five 15-storey towers of two-bedroom units sized 980 to 1,163 sq ft and three-bedroom units sized 1,076 to 2,077 sq ft. Completed in 1999, it was launched just months before the start of the Asian financial crisis at $500 to $600 psf.

The lowest price set there was in 2003, when a 15th-floor, 1,744 sq ft unit changed hands in the resale market for $495,000 ($284 psf). The same unit was sold in early 2007 for $287 psf, or $500,000. Since August this year, prices have been hitting $600 psf, with a historical high of $695 psf achieved in September, when a 12th-floor, 980 sq ft unit was sold for $681,000.

Regentville’s attraction is the possibility of buying a unit within a project that’s just over 10 years old for under $800,000. This probably makes Regentville “one of the most affordable in the Serangoon and Hougang areas”, notes property agent Ruth Ho, a senior associate director at C&H Group.

In the Nov 16 to 23 period, three units changed hands in the secondary market at $626 to $684 psf. On Nov 22, a first-floor, 1,163 sq ft unit was sold for $728,000 ($626 psf), representing a 35.2% gain for the seller, who bought it from the developer for $538,000 ($463 psf) in February 1998 amid the Asian financial crisis.

On the 10th floor of another block, a seller made a 17% gain when he sold his 980 sq ft unit for $670,000 ($684 psf) on Nov 19. He bought the unit for $571,857 ($584 psf) from the developer during its launch in June 1997.

Meanwhile, a 1,152 sq ft unit on the 11th floor changed hands for the third time for $746,000 ($648 psf). The seller bought the unit for $588,000 ($511 psf) on the resale market in July 2007. Prior to that, the unit was transacted at $580,000 ($504 psf) in early 2002. The first owner bought the unit for $721,580 ($627 psf) from the developer in September 1997.

In Hougang, near Upper Serangoon Road, is another 99-year leasehold development — the 394-unit Evergreen Park, on Hougang Avenue 7. Completed in 1999 around the same time as Regentville, Evergreen Park features three- and four-bedroom apartments sized 1,012 to 1,367 sq ft.

There were at least four transactions at Evergreen Park in November, according to caveats lodged with URA. Most recently, on Nov 22, a 13th-floor, 1,367 sq ft apartment changed hands at $835,000 ($611 psf). The month also saw the highest price set for the project, when a 1,076 sq ft apartment was sold for $780,000 ($725 psf), according to a Nov 15 caveat. The other two sales, at $710,000, were for a 1,023 sq ft unit ($694 psf) and a 1,044 sq ft unit ($680 psf).

Also located along Hougang Avenue 7 is the 496- unit executive condo The Florida, which was completed in 2000 and can now be traded like a regular 99-year leasehold private condo. The City Developments project was launched during the Asian financial crisis, in June 1998, and yet was completely sold out within a few days at $400 to $450 psf.

In the resale market, prices have reached $586 to $656 psf in the last two months. In October, a 10thfloor, 1,227 sq ft unit changed hands for $805,000 ($656 psf), the highest price to date. In the most recent transaction in November, a 14th-floor, 1,292 sq ft unit was sold for $830,000 ($643 psf).

Next door to The Florida is the 716-unit Rio Vista condo, along Upper Serangoon Road, which was completed in 2004. According to the most recent URA caveats, units there traded at $682 to $711 psf in October. Most recently, a 2,465 sq ft, 17th-floor apartment changed hands for $1.68 million ($682 psf) in October. The highest price set at Rio Vista was $890,000 ($719 psf) in June for a 1,238 sq ft, 15th-floor unit. The second highest was $717 psf, or $895,000, for an eighth-floor, 1,249 sq ft unit.

The suburban neighbourhoods of Ang Mo Kio, Buangkok, Hougang, Upper Serangoon and Yio Chu Kang Road are seeing the greatest number of new developments, comprising executive and private condos, as more government land sites are released for sale. There’s also increased connectivity, with more MRT stations opening up, and amenities like shopping and eateries.

For instance, Regentville is located next to Central Place and Hougang Point shopping mall. Within a 10-minute drive is nex mall, which is considered Singapore’s largest suburban shopping mall and is connected underground to the Serangoon Central MRT station and interchange, and integrated with the bus interchange.

Regentville is also within 1km of a top primary school — Rosyth Primary School — while a feeder bus provides a link to the Serangoon Central, Hougang and Kovan MRT stations. “Buyers continue to like Regentville due to its easy accessibility to the major expressways, such as the Central Expressway, Seletar Expressway and Tampines Expressway,” says Ho.

The latest monthly asking rents at Regentville are $2,500 to $2,800 for two-bedroom units and up to $3,200 for three-bedroom apartments, estimates Ho. This offers rental yields of 4.5% to 5.3%.

Source : The Edge – 12 Dec 2010

Prices of freehold landed housing in Singapore’s prime districts have surged 5.1 per cent in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, compared to growth of 2 per cent in the third quarter.

The average price of landed homes in the prime districts in the fourth quarter stands at $1,693 psf, property consultant DTZ said yesterday. Outside the prime districts, landed prices are up by 4.3 per cent to $993 psf, compared to the 1.7 per cent increase a quarter ago, it said.

Overall, DTZ says this represents an increase of about 16 per cent for landed properties for the whole of this year.

Ms Chua Chor Hoon, head of DTZ South East Asia Research, noted that the limited supply of landed properties, accounting for about 26 per cent of total private housing stock, made them a prized asset.

In contrast, the supply of non-landed units, such as condominiums, is injected at a faster pace via the government land sales programme and collective sales, she said.

The resale price of leasehold condominiums in the suburban areas has held firm at $660 psf this quarter, while that of condominiums in the prime districts grew marginally by 0.4 per cent to $1,520 psf. The prices of these two non-landed segments have surpassed their previous peaks in 2007, indicating price increases are hitting a resistance wall, DTZ said.

Buyers have also exercised greater prudence following the government’s cooling measures implemented this year, it added.

Source : Today – 22 Dec 2010

More top-end condominiums in the core central region (CCR) have been changing hands – at higher prices – with each passing month. Yet, deals above $4,000 psf are still rare. Analysts say that this shows the luxury segment still has room for capital appreciation.

November saw only one such transaction – a Scotts Square unit which sold for $4,358 psf, according to the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA). In October, a Boulevard Vue unit sold for $4,800 psf.

Back in 2007, a unit at Orchard Residences went for as high as $5,094 psf, while one at the Marque on Paterson Hill fetched $5,262 psf. In all, 13 units sold at higher than $4,000 psf in the second half of 2007. So far, in the second half of this year, there have been only five such sales.

Investors are still not paying top dollar for extra exclusivity – a sign that they have been cautious on luxury homes in the current property cycle. Prices of mass-market homes, meanwhile, have already surpassed their 2007 peaks.

Even then, analysts say it’s only a matter of time before prices of luxury properties catch up with – and exceed – their 2007 peak.

“There’s room to grow a further 5 to 8 per cent to reach 2007 price levels,” said Dr Chua Yang Liang, head of research, South-east Asia at Jones Lang LaSalle.

Sales of new luxury homes have also been volatile, according to the URA’s data. Sales in the CCR in November fell to 213 from 335 units in October. In September, following the government’s Aug 30 measures to cool the property market, CCR sales were as low as 84 units.

But investors need not worry about the erratic sales volumes, analysts say.

“Luxury property sales tend to see some volatility because there are fewer luxury property developments compared with mass market ones,” said Dr Chua. “High-end property developers launch their projects more sporadically.”

With China clamping down hard on the property market in its tier-one cities, ultra-rich investors are likely to move capital to Singapore, analysts say.

“High-end residential properties in Singapore, which traditionally enjoy significant foreign home buying interest, may benefit as a number of investors from across the world are looking at diversifying their investments geographically,” said Mr Ong Kah Seng, senior manager of research at Cushman & Wakefield.

Credit Suisse says investors should exit the residential real-estate market in China and move their money to the residential and commercial property markets in Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan.

The bank expects residential property prices in Singapore to increase 5 per cent in each of the next two years, on top of an estimated 15 per cent gain this year.

Still, analysts warn that the policy risk going into next year remains high for all types of properties, including luxury units that are typically unscathed by measures that seek to curb leveraged home-buying.

They said harsher cooling measures may be introduced – such as a tax on profits from property sales after URA data this week showed that 1,909 private residential units were sold last month,a surprising 80 per cent jump from October’s 1,058 units.

Source : Today – 17 Dec 2010