炒樓受重招打擊後 港熱錢將轉炒商鋪股市
文章來源: insight7772010-11-23 11:13:58

(2010-11-23)《早報導讀》

● 戴慶成

中國財經熱點

香港地業界人士指出,隨著港府出重招遏樓市炒風,二手樓市交投量應聲暴跌,反映當局的遏抑炒風措施取得了初步成功,但熱錢湧港大勢未改,大量資金將湧向其他資產市場。

戴慶成 報道

香港

  香港特區政府出重拳打擊住宅炒風之後,有資深樓市炒家估計,部分資金可能會流至商鋪炒賣市場,令炒鋪火上加油;但也有證券分析員預計,大量熱錢將轉投股市“炒股”。

  香港地產中介公司美聯物業昨天表示,自港府上周五推出新一輪遏抑樓市措施後,在剛過去的周末,十大指標屋苑二手交投量急跌了近八成,跌幅為2007年以來最大,幅度甚於金融海嘯。一半屋苑更錄得零成交。

  另一地產中介公司利嘉閣地產董事總經理廖偉強預料,本月私人住宅市場的成交量按月會跌幅至少達三成,樓價也有10%的下跌空間。

  當地業界人士指出,隨著港府出重招遏樓市炒風,二手樓市交投量應聲暴跌,反映當局的遏抑炒風措施取得了初步成功,但熱錢湧港大勢未改,大量資金將湧向其他資產市場。

  據香港《明報》昨天引述資深炒家估計,港府上周五宣布向兩年內轉售的住宅物業出重招,征收5%至15%不等的額外印花稅,反而商鋪短炒仍不受限製,部分資金可能會流至商鋪炒賣市場,令炒鋪火上加油。

報道指,香港商鋪近年炒風比住宅更猛烈。根據香港金融管理局數字顯示,商鋪價格現已超出1997年9月高峰38.7%,今年第三季“確認人交易”(俗稱“摩貨”,即未正式成交前轉售第三者)金額也創近五年新高。

帶起加租潮

  報道指,這股炒風開始帶起加租潮連累租戶,近月旺角、銅鑼灣部分地鋪的租金大加近五成,店主唯有扭盡六壬掙紮求存,包括暫時凍結加薪或改為24小時營業增加收入,有老店更因此被迫結業。

  有零售業高層指,在瘋狂加租下,估計旺角西洋菜街大型連鎖店或有三分之一虧本,續租隻為了廣告效應。

  美聯及中原數據則顯示,以旺角登打士街為例,一些200至300平方英尺上下的迷你鋪位,租金近月勁升五成至8萬(1.34萬新元)到13萬港元不等,不少小店已無法承受而結業,由特許經營小食店(奶酪、奶茶、炸雞等)接火棒續租。

  摩貨也加劇店鋪價格及租金漲勢。例如旺角通菜街103號地下及閣樓自置3000平方英尺、經營逾30年的“馬健記圖書”店鋪,創辦人去年9月以2600萬港元賣出後,原以8萬港元月租租回鋪位一年,未料買家旋即以3450萬港元把鋪位“摩出”轉售第三者,新買家近日即要求馬健記約滿後大幅加租近五成。

  馬健記職員稱,由於找不到租金合理新鋪,書店本月底將結業,員工也將因此失業。

  在昨天的立法會財經及房屋事務委員會聯席會議上,有立法會議員關注上述現像,促請港府關注及詳細探討商業樓宇炒賣問題,以免影響本地通脹。

  不過,財經事務及庫務局局長陳家強回應時強調,商鋪買賣純粹是商業行為,但住宅價高會影響民生,所以要出手壓製。

  另一方麵,花旗銀行的分析報告稱,美國推出新一輪量化寬鬆政策,將持續導致利率低企,並推動資產價格上升,預料香港在政府限製炒樓下,資金更傾向於流通量更高的股市。

報告重申,明年底恒生指數目標為26500點。

  交銀國際資產管理基金經理馮時暖也預期,港股短期會有所波動,但熱錢仍會流入香港。

  他說,“相對於樓市,政府要控製股市的優先次序較低,故熱錢可能會因而集中在股市。”

Mon, Nov 22, 2010
The Business Times


HK steps up fight to cool property prices

HONG Kong imposed additional taxes and raised down payments on residential properties, stepping up a battle against surging prices after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that asset inflation may derail the city's economy.

Homes sold within six months of purchase will incur a 15 per cent stamp duty from today, Financial Secretary John Tsang said in a briefing yesterday. Down payments for homes costing HK$12 million (S$2 million) or more will rise to 50 per cent, from 40 per cent. A stock gauge of developers in Hong Kong fell for the eighth day in nine ahead of the announcements.

'The measures show the government is serious about curbing speculation, and that would impact on market sentiment, leading to a fall in home sales volume,' said David Ng, a Hong Kong-based property analyst at Royal Bank of Scotland plc. 'Home prices won't see a decline immediately as speculators could still keep their stocks in the low interest rate environment.'

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Governments from South Korea to Brazil are acting to stem fund inflows into their higher- yielding markets after the US Federal Reserve's expanded monetary stimulus. Hong Kong is resorting to increased taxes and tighter lending to curb home prices that have risen more than 50 per cent since the beginning of 2009 because the island's currency peg to the US dollar prevents the city's de facto central bank from raising interest rates.

'The unusual surge in flat prices has attracted speculators - this, coupled with quantitative easing measures, has distorted the market expectation regarding inflation and asset prices,' Mr Tsang said. 'The government is resolute in maintaining economic stability and curbing any threat to people's livelihoods.'

The Hang Seng Property Index, which tracks the city's seven-biggest builders, fell 1.3 per cent at the 4pm local time close to the lowest since Oct 29. It has declined 7.6 per cent since this year's peak on Nov 8. It ended the week 4.1 per cent lower, its biggest weekly drop since the five days ended May 7.

Properties resold within 6-12 months will incur a 10 per cent stamp duty, while those resold from 12-24 months will be charged 5 per cent, Mr Tsang said yesterday. The stamp duty will be split between buyers and sellers, he said.

Down payments for homes costing HK$8-12 million will be increased to 40 per cent from 30 per cent, Hong Kong Monetary Authority chief executive Norman Chan said at a separate briefing yesterday. Mr Chan has said that the Fed's quantitative easing may spur inflows of cash into Hong Kong.

The maximum loan to value for all non-owner occupied residential properties and those held by companies will be lowered to 50 per cent, Mr Chan said.

The government will adopt more measures to make sure that the market is stable, Mr Tsang said. The additional stamp duty 'is quite substantial, and is a way to deter speculation', said Benedict Ma, Hong Kong-based associate director of research at CB Richard Ellis Group Inc, the world's biggest real estate services firm. 'Investors, especially those in the luxury market, will have to reassess whether this is really the right time to get into the market.'

The IMF said in a report on Thursday that Hong Kong's accelerating asset inflation risks causing a bust that leads to deflation and an extended economic 'downturn', and urged further measures to rein in prices. The city has in the past year raised down payment ratios and boosted land supply to curb home prices, which have surpassed a 1997 peak on the back of record low mortgage rates and an influx of mainland Chinese buyers.

In April, Hong Kong raised the tax on homes selling for more than HK$20 million to 4.25 per cent from 3.75 per cent.

This article was first published in The Business Times.