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壇子上很多人指出股市真實的回報不能用現在的401K標準,必須結合30年前的收入。不然就是搞穿越曆史式的投資。這話說的很對。所以我簡單計算了一下。看看如果按照曾經的收入標準和曾經的401K上限,投資結果是怎樣的。
大家可以自行對照這些對標基準,算算自己為什麽沒有做到。
先看第一組數據
如果你1987年,401K出台的時候,響應美國國家號召。一直買滿401K。你的公司是鐵公雞一毛不拔。從來不給你match. 你的情況如何? 結果如下:
Age |
Year |
S&P return |
Contribution |
balance |
25 |
1987 |
5.25% |
7,000 |
0 |
26 |
1988 |
16.61% |
7,313 |
7000 |
27 |
1989 |
31.69% |
7,627 |
15475.7 |
28 |
1990 |
-3.10% |
7,979 |
28006.9 |
29 |
1991 |
30.47% |
8,475 |
35117.7 |
30 |
1992 |
7.62% |
8,728 |
54293.1 |
31 |
1993 |
10.08% |
8,994 |
67158.2 |
32 |
1994 |
1.32% |
9,240 |
82921.8 |
33 |
1995 |
37.58% |
9,240 |
93256.4 |
34 |
1996 |
22.96% |
9,500 |
137542 |
35 |
1997 |
33.36% |
9,500 |
178622 |
36 |
1998 |
28.58% |
10,000 |
247710 |
37 |
1999 |
21.04% |
10,000 |
328506 |
38 |
2000 |
-9.10% |
10,500 |
407623 |
39 |
2001 |
-11.89% |
10,500 |
381029 |
40 |
2002 |
-22.10% |
11,000 |
346225 |
41 |
2003 |
28.68% |
12,000 |
280709 |
42 |
2004 |
10.88% |
13,000 |
373217 |
43 |
2005 |
4.91% |
14,000 |
426823 |
44 |
2006 |
15.79% |
15,000 |
461780 |
45 |
2007 |
5.49% |
15500 |
549695 |
46 |
2008 |
-37.00% |
16000 |
595373 |
47 |
2009 |
26.46% |
16500 |
391085 |
48 |
2010 |
15.06% |
17500 |
511066 |
49 |
2011 |
2.11% |
18000 |
605533 |
50 |
2012 |
16.00% |
18000 |
636309 |
51 |
2013 |
32.39% |
18000 |
756119 |
52 |
2014 |
13.69% |
18000 |
1019026 |
53 |
2015 |
1.38% |
18000 |
1176530 |
54 |
2016 |
12.87% |
18000 |
1210766
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你現在應該有1.2millon了。如果你夫妻兩個都工作,公司再有match.你應該有超過3-4million的401K在賬號裏。如果你少於這個數字,或者是因為你投資不利,或者是你自己沒有很好的約束自己。或者因為你的管理費交的太高了。
如果你年齡比這個大,比如1970年你就開始工作。當時的年收入是2萬美元,你拿出3000美元一年存在股市裏。那麽你的回報是多少呢?
Age |
Year |
S&P return |
Contribution |
balance |
25 |
1970 |
4.01% |
3,000 |
0 |
26 |
1971 |
14.31% |
3,150 |
3000 |
27 |
1972 |
18.98% |
3,308 |
6579.3 |
28 |
1973 |
-14.66% |
3,473 |
11135.6 |
29 |
1974 |
-26.47% |
3,647 |
12976 |
30 |
1975 |
37.20% |
3,829 |
13187.7 |
31 |
1976 |
23.84% |
4,020 |
21922.4 |
32 |
1977 |
-7.18% |
4,221 |
31169 |
33 |
1978 |
6.56% |
4,432 |
33152.4 |
34 |
1979 |
18.44% |
4,654 |
39759.5 |
35 |
1980 |
32.50% |
4,887 |
51745.2 |
36 |
1981 |
-4.92% |
5,131 |
73449.1 |
37 |
1982 |
21.55% |
5,388 |
74966.4 |
38 |
1983 |
22.56% |
5,657 |
96509.2 |
39 |
1984 |
6.27% |
5,940 |
123939 |
40 |
1985 |
31.73% |
6,237 |
137649 |
41 |
1986 |
18.67% |
6,549 |
187562 |
42 |
1987 |
5.25% |
7,000 |
229129 |
43 |
1988 |
16.61% |
7,313 |
248158 |
44 |
1989 |
31.69% |
7,627 |
296690 |
45 |
1990 |
-3.10% |
7,979 |
398338 |
46 |
1991 |
30.47% |
8,475 |
393969 |
47 |
1992 |
7.62% |
8,728 |
522486 |
48 |
1993 |
10.08% |
8,994 |
571027 |
49 |
1994 |
1.32% |
9,240 |
637581 |
50 |
1995 |
37.58% |
9,240 |
655237 |
51 |
1996 |
22.96% |
9,500 |
910715 |
52 |
1997 |
33.36% |
9,500 |
1129315 |
53 |
1998 |
28.58% |
10,000 |
1515555 |
54 |
1999 |
21.04% |
10,000 |
1958701 |
55 |
2000 |
-9.10% |
10,500 |
2380811 |
56 |
2001 |
-11.89% |
10,500 |
2174657 |
57 |
2002 |
-22.10% |
11,000 |
1926591 |
58 |
2003 |
28.68% |
12,000 |
1511814 |
59 |
2004 |
10.88% |
13,000 |
1957402 |
60 |
2005 |
4.91% |
14,000 |
2183368 |
61 |
2006 |
15.79% |
15,000 |
2304571 |
62 |
2007 |
5.49% |
15500 |
2683463 |
63 |
2008 |
-37.00% |
16000 |
2846285 |
64 |
2009 |
26.46% |
16500 |
1809160 |
65 |
2010 |
15.06% |
17500 |
2304363 |
66 |
2011 |
2.11% |
18000 |
2668900 |
67 |
2012 |
16.00% |
18000 |
2743214 |
68 |
2013 |
32.39% |
18000 |
3200128 |
69 |
2014 |
13.69% |
18000 |
4254650 |
70 |
2015 |
1.38% |
18000 |
4855112 |
71 |
2016 |
12.87% |
18000 |
4940112 |
你有將近5百萬。如果你夫妻二人工作,配上1987年後的公司match. 你應該有過一千萬的資產。
這裏我想再次說。管理費其實對你投資影響非常大。同樣上麵的例子。假如你每年付1%的管理費。那麽你現在的nest egg是:
|
|
|
|
1% fee |
Age |
Year |
S&P return |
Contribution |
balance |
25 |
1970 |
4.01% |
3,000 |
0 |
26 |
1971 |
14.31% |
3,150 |
3000 |
27 |
1972 |
18.98% |
3,308 |
6549.3 |
28 |
1973 |
-14.66% |
3,473 |
11034.4 |
29 |
1974 |
-26.47% |
3,647 |
12779.3 |
30 |
1975 |
37.20% |
3,829 |
12915.3 |
31 |
1976 |
23.84% |
4,020 |
21419.5 |
32 |
1977 |
-7.18% |
4,221 |
30332 |
33 |
1978 |
6.56% |
4,432 |
32072.1 |
34 |
1979 |
18.44% |
4,654 |
38287.7 |
35 |
1980 |
32.50% |
4,887 |
49619.1 |
36 |
1981 |
-4.92% |
5,131 |
70135.8 |
37 |
1982 |
21.55% |
5,388 |
71114.8 |
38 |
1983 |
22.56% |
5,657 |
91116.4 |
39 |
1984 |
6.27% |
5,940 |
116418 |
40 |
1985 |
31.73% |
6,237 |
128493 |
41 |
1986 |
18.67% |
6,549 |
174216 |
42 |
1987 |
5.25% |
7,000 |
211548 |
43 |
1988 |
16.61% |
7,313 |
227539 |
44 |
1989 |
31.69% |
7,627 |
270371 |
45 |
1990 |
-3.10% |
7,979 |
360975 |
46 |
1991 |
30.47% |
8,475 |
354154 |
47 |
1992 |
7.62% |
8,728 |
466998 |
48 |
1993 |
10.08% |
8,994 |
506641 |
49 |
1994 |
1.32% |
9,240 |
561638 |
50 |
1995 |
37.58% |
9,240 |
572676 |
51 |
1996 |
22.96% |
9,500 |
791400 |
52 |
1997 |
33.36% |
9,500 |
974692 |
53 |
1998 |
28.58% |
10,000 |
1299602 |
54 |
1999 |
21.04% |
10,000 |
1668033 |
55 |
2000 |
-9.10% |
10,500 |
2012306 |
56 |
2001 |
-11.89% |
10,500 |
1819563 |
57 |
2002 |
-22.10% |
11,000 |
1595522 |
58 |
2003 |
28.68% |
12,000 |
1237956 |
59 |
2004 |
10.88% |
13,000 |
1592622 |
60 |
2005 |
4.91% |
14,000 |
1762973 |
61 |
2006 |
15.79% |
15,000 |
1845906 |
62 |
2007 |
5.49% |
15500 |
2133915 |
63 |
2008 |
-37.00% |
16000 |
2245228 |
64 |
2009 |
26.46% |
16500 |
1408041 |
65 |
2010 |
15.06% |
17500 |
1783029 |
66 |
2011 |
2.11% |
18000 |
2051222 |
67 |
2012 |
16.00% |
18000 |
2091991 |
68 |
2013 |
32.39% |
18000 |
2423790 |
69 |
2014 |
13.69% |
18000 |
3202617 |
70 |
2015 |
1.38% |
18000 |
3627029 |
71 |
2016 |
12.87% |
18000 |
3658812 |
這個小小的1%。 讓你比應該的資產少了1.4個million。
所有跟帖:
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