博文
(2008-05-09 05:48:54)
Citigroupjustannounceda"grand"plantosell20%ofitsassets.That'sanotherwarningsignafterAIG'sERlastnight.Hereiswhy?
1.Citigrouphasbeentryingtoraisecashbysellingmoresharesrecently.Asignofcashisdesperatelyneeded.Sellingsharestoraisecashatthistimeisactuallyaripofftotheshareholdersasthealreadyweakenedsharepricewillbefurtherdilutedagain.Whydotheyneedcashsobadly?Theyareseeingproblemscomingdo...[閱讀全文]
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(2008-05-08 06:05:12)
IfIscorelowerthan85onmygolfgametoday,marketwillconfirmitsshorttermdowntrendandbearwilltakeover.Anyscoreabove90,Iwillbeoutofmyshort/putpositionsandwaitfornextweek.Anyscorebetween85-90,Iwillkeepmycurrentpositions.Seriously,ifS&Phits1380areawithstrongvoltoday,bearmighthaveagoodchancetotakeover.Thatwouldbeatimetoincreaseshort/putpositions.
Themarketdoesnotneedagoodreasontomoveupordown.Justgowi...[閱讀全文]
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(2008-05-06 11:33:55)
Ciscowilldofinethisquarter.However,theforwardlookingwillbeconservativeatmost.Why?ThetelecomsectorandservicesectorareintroubleandthatwouldmeanlessbigordersforCisco.
Ciscocanonlycountonupwardgrowthfrominternationalmarket.However,thatmarketisgettingmoreandmorecompetitivewithcompanieslikeHuaWeieatingCisco'slunchleftandright.
IdonotbelieveCisco'sERwillhavebigimpacttothemarket.Takealookatallrece...[閱讀全文]
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Thestockpriceofbigoilcompaniesarenotsynchronizedwiththeupwardmovementoftheoilpriceduringthisuptrend.Andanalystsarepumpingoilpricesupliketheworldisrunningoutofoilnow.
Goldmanisoneofthelargestoilspeculatorsintheworld.Ontheotherhand,Goldmanisalsofamousforshortingattherightmomenttomakehugeprofitonthesectorstheyarepumping.IwillnotbesurprisedthatGoldmanisshortingoilbigtimeatthismomentwhiletheirownan...[閱讀全文]
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Asmentionedinoneofmypreviousposts,thehotmoneyintheglobalmarket,insteadofpouringbackintothehousingmarket,willbeusedtogenerateanotherspeculativebubble.Now,it'smoreandmoreclearthat,weareeyewitnessingthedevelopmentofthatbubble,thebubbleincommodities.Beforemovingforward,let'stakealookatthepriceincrementsofsomeofthecommoditiesthroughthepastyear:
crudeoil:up80%
corn:up66%
gold:up37%
ric...[閱讀全文]
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(2008-05-04 17:59:45)
天下的股書多如你的頭毛,數也數不清.要每本去鑽研的話,你的頭毛一定掉光.這倒不是壞事,十個光頭九個富嘛,嗬嗬嗬....
有一本書一定是入門必讀,"TheIntelligentInvestor".為啥?看了你就知.我的觀感很膚淺,不外如下:
1.股海風大,不好混.
2.股海浪大,要混下去,很累,很苦.
3.股海有金撈,打魚撈金,奇樂無窮.前提是,你不先淹死了.
4.活著,你一定要活著.
5.打魚撈金,[閱讀全文]
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(2008-05-03 10:47:53)
打完Golf,很爽.衝了壺茉莉花茶,隨手翻了一下易經.竟有意外發現.易經卦三十三.遁:肥遁,無不利.大意是,做人不要貪,賺了就跑,長此下去,就一定發達.看到此,股帝不禁一楞,難道中國古代周朝已有股市?[肥遁,無不利]不就是炒股的一大致勝法則嗎?我們的祖先真厲害啊!很多人炒股見財化水,全因為貪,要在最高點獲利,結果中了莊家的套,不賺[閱讀全文]
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(2008-05-02 19:25:51)
Allindiceshavehittheir200MAandyetthebullishsentimenthasbeeninchinghigherandhighereveryday.Mediaispaintingaveryrosypicturefortheeconomy.DoItrustthisrally?Notatall.Thisbearrallyisslowlyturningintoasuckersrallyandit'sveryunwisetochasethisrallyatthisstage.It'sveryrareforallindicestohitthe200MAresistancewithoutpullingbackandIdonotthinkthisrallywillbeanexception.
Whileweshouldnotbetoopersimisticab...[閱讀全文]
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(2008-05-01 13:46:26)
牛跑的太猛,要抽筋的.
莊家剛在CommoditySector吸完血,現在又到別的Sectors抽水.誰前兩周信了Media把Commodity捧上天的隻好一聲歎息.Media現在的任務是,把這牛捧上天,把更多的散戶吸進來.


我不想歎息,除了為熊準備小吃以外,我基本在看戲.
不遠處,熊正在冷笑......
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(2008-04-30 16:28:18)
Fed累了,Fed也沒底.Fed對經濟的前景更沒把握.
大市是短期回調,中期上下振蕩,但熊勢不改.散戶們很有錢,莊家不會放過的.曆史上9個大反衝,7個發生在2000的大熊市中.平白無故的大反彈,也是大熊的特征.
當心,當心.特別是人人都很牛時.
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