Falsified War虛假戰爭
Falsified War
By：Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine
Kostiantynivka – Former US military officer Daniel Driscoll, appointed Secretary of the Army by Donald Trump, has tried to persuade Europeans to accept Russia’s plan to surrender Ukraine (presented by his administration as «of peace»), explaining that «the Kremlin’s war machine produces enough long-range missiles to build up sufficient stockpiles not only to deliver devastating blows on Ukraine, but also to cross its borders».
According to Driscoll, Ukraine and its allies should reluctantly agree to surrender because «Russian victory is inevitable». The only front where the Russians are truly making gains is information. Or rather, disinformation, because from the persistent rhetoric of the White House – now openly aligned with the Kremlin – to the ‘news’ that millions of users scroll through daily on social media, it’s clear what direction the situation has taken.
Even Vladimir Putin subtly admitted it yesterday when – referring to the ‘Witkoff leaks’ – he reminded that «Westeners have to learn how to spy (i.e., lie)». And there’s no contest. Russian propaganda has managed to infiltrate a multitude of Western media outlets, taking advantage of the decreasing number of correspondents on the ground and that the narrative being spread is even convenient for many Western governments. Just like in 2014, when the Russian invasion of Ukraine was dismissed as a ‘civil war’: a local issue, to be resolved internally.
Browsing the Italian press review is a chilling experience.
The fall of Pokrovsk has been announced hundreds of times, as have those of Toretsk, Vovchansk, Chasiv Yar, and now Huliaypole. The reality is that the former is located 50 kilometers from where the Russian army was stopped 11 years ago, the latter a dozen kilometers away, and Russian attempts to seize these areas have been ongoing for nearly two years now. Just as the Russians are bogged down in Vovchansk and the central-eastern sector of Chasiv Yar. From Huliaypole, in the past few hours, the Ukrainian General Staff finally announced what we described from the field days ago:«The Ukrainian Defense Forces managed to rapidly erect new defense lines at Novouspenivke», first with one battalion of the 102nd Brigade and then with reinforcements from the 225th Motorized Infantry Regiment.
Were we prophets? No. We were just present. As on each of the fronts mentioned, while from afar people were writing about it inappropriately. For so long that we knew how to navigate not only these roads but also the tunnels.
Providing information in wartime is a serious matter.
Many Italian tabloids have reported the Donbas front as having collapsed so many times that it raises doubts about whether it still exists. We’ve been reporting from various parts of this long bastion for weeks, and even before that, for months and years of war. As happened a few hours ago in Pokrovsk and Huliajpole, sometimes the reality we describe live isn’t immediately reflected on the maps, but the facts prove us right. This time too, our assessments were correct, so much so that they were appreciated and cited by leading analysts and think tanks. We have no merit other than being here. Continuously, for nearly 1,400 days.
The Russian narrative has been pushing forward much earlier and very strongly, offering today – as it has for almost 12 years – a convenient interpretation of events for Western governments, perfectly aligned with that advocated by Washington’s emissaries: Ukraine is short of manpower.
Having thus circumscribed the problem, those media outlets that – more or less knowingly – promote Russian propaganda offer governments an excuse to wash their hands of the matter, resolving the issue by advising Zelensky to mobilize the 18 – 24 age group.
But it’s clear that the problem lies elsewhere. As American analyst
observed from Ukraine, the Ukrainian government even allowed those young people to leave the country.
Are they in Kyiv going crazy? No. They simply have a clearer vision of the war than those who write about it from armchairs or, at best, from Ukrainian hotels and restaurants.
As The Dupuy Institute notes, Ukraine’s ground forces total around 575,000 soldiers: half a million AFU, 30,000 marines, and 45,000 airborne troops. Including the Territorial Defense Forces and the National Guard significantly increases the overall number.
In our travels across the country – from the western regions to those bordering Belarus and Transnistria, passing through its inland cities, in Bessarabia and on the Black Sea, but especially here in Donbas – we have repeatedly confirmed these estimates, reported in the 2025 edition of The Military Balance.
For the Russian Federation, the combined ground forces, marines, PMCs, and airborne troops in Ukraine total 594,000. This figure is declining, given that previous reports (The Dupuy Institute, The Military Balance 2025, Mediazona/Meduza, RUSI, CNA, just to name a few) indicated around 700,000. Both sides recruit 30,000 men per month, but Moscow leaves many more on the field. Due to deaths and serious injuries, Russian irreversible losses are now nearing 1,200,000, and the toll pace is a thousand a day.
Ukraine, which is 28.3 times smaller than Russia but has a population just four times smaller, has been regularly conscripting men for almost four years. Russia hasn’t. So much so that it has had to recruit volunteers from over 40 countries.
Due to the abysmal losses, Moscow has been forced to deploy reserve forces right here in Pokrovsk.
You just need to be here to understand that.
What is truly overwhelming, however, is Russia’s dominance in firepower. As we confirmed in all our latest dispatches, at an estimated ratio of approximately 1.8:1, despite having only 20% more men, the Russians fire 80% more rounds.
And we’re only talking about artillery and counter-battery fire.
We discussed the statistics on high-explosive drones, glide bombs, and various types of missiles yesterday: the numbers overwhelmingly favor the Russians. These Ukrainian shortcomings – known and longstanding – clearly rest on the West’s shoulders.
Faced with the disengagement of many of Ukraine’s military partners, we see its unworthy justification emerge, fueled by the Kremlin narrative: «Ukraine is short on manpower and must mobilize more.»
Translated: make do.
THANKS TO ALL WHO BACK US IN THESE HARD TIMES
感謝所有在這段艱難時期支持我們的人
幫我們購買無人機探測器
在過去的三年裏，作為自由撰稿人，我們一直在烏克蘭戰爭的所有前線進行報道，自從大規模…
https://www.paypal.com/pools/c/9kcYJAqQqQ
虛假戰爭
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
烏克蘭前線報道
科斯季安季諾夫卡——前美國軍官丹尼爾·德裏斯科爾，曾被唐納德·川普任命為陸軍部長，試圖說服歐洲人接受俄羅斯的烏克蘭投降計劃（川普政府將其稱為“和平計劃”），並解釋說：“克裏姆林宮的戰爭機器生產能夠足夠多的遠程導彈，不僅可以對烏克蘭造成毀滅性打擊，還可以越過其邊界。”
德裏斯科爾認為，烏克蘭及其盟友應該勉強同意投降，因為“俄羅斯的勝利是不可避免的”。俄羅斯真正取得進展的唯一戰線是信息戰。或者更確切地說，是虛假信息，因為從白宮的持續言論—現在公開與克裏姆林宮沆瀣一氣—到數百萬用戶每天在社交媒體上瀏覽的“新聞”，可以清楚地看出局勢的發展方向。
甚至弗拉基米爾·普京昨天也含蓄地承認了這一點，他提到“維特科夫泄密事件”時提醒道：“西方人必須學會如何進行間諜活動（即，撒謊）。”而且毫無爭議。俄羅斯的宣傳已經成功滲透到眾多西方媒體，利用了在前線越來越少記者的機會，且傳播的敘述對許多西方政府來說也是便利的。就像2014年，當俄羅斯對烏克蘭的入侵被視為“內戰”：一個地方性問題，應該內部解決。
（圖：描述最不糟糕立場的一家意大利報紙情況稱：“疲憊的士兵，少量的坦克和戰鬥機：頓巴斯前線正在崩潰”（注意‘頓巴斯’是按照俄語音譯的）——圖片來源，“La Repubblica” X頻道）
瀏覽意大利媒體的評論是一種令人不安的體驗。
波克羅夫斯克的淪陷已經被宣布了數百次，托雷茨克、沃夫昌斯克、查西夫雅爾，甚至是如今的霍利揚波列也一樣。現實是，波克羅夫斯克距離俄羅斯軍隊11年前被阻止的地方有50公裏，而霍利揚波列則相距十幾公裏，俄羅斯試圖奪這些地區的行動已經持續近兩年。正如俄軍在沃夫昌斯克和查西夫雅爾的中東部地區陷入困境一樣，從霍利揚波列，在過去的幾個小時裏，烏克蘭總參謀部終於宣布了我們幾天前現場描述的情況：“烏克蘭防衛部隊成功迅速在諾沃烏斯佩尼夫卡建立了新的防線”，最初由第102旅的一個營參與，隨後得到225摩托化步兵團的增援。
我們是先知嗎？不是。我們隻是身處其中。正如在每一個提到的前線上，那些遠在千裏之外的人們卻在對其進行不適當的報道。經曆了這麽久，我們不僅知道如何在這些道路上行進，對那些隧道也非常熟悉了。
在戰爭時期提供信息是一個嚴肅的問題。
許多意大利小報反複報道稱，頓巴斯前線已經崩潰，以至於讓人懷疑它是否依然存在。我們在這個漫長堡壘的不同地方進行了數周、數月、數年戰爭的報道，甚至在此之前。就像幾個小時前在波克羅夫斯克和霍利揚波列所發生的一樣，有時我們現場描述的現實並未立即反映在地圖上，但事實證明我們是對的。這一次也一樣，我們的評估依然準確，以至於得到了頭部分析師和智庫的讚賞和引用。我們唯一功勞就是一直在這裏（前線），已經近1400天。
俄羅斯的敘事早已強勢推進，今天——正如近12年來一樣——更是向西方政府提供了一種便利的事件解讀，完美符合華盛頓特使所倡導的論點：烏克蘭缺乏兵力。
通過這樣界定問題，那些或多或少明知故犯地甘願為俄羅斯宣傳的媒體為政府提供了一個推卸責任的借口，建議澤連斯基征兵18至24歲的人群來解決這個問題。
但顯然，問題出在別處。正如美國分析師迪倫·科姆貝裏克在烏克蘭觀察到的，烏克蘭政府甚至允許那些年輕人離開該國。
他們在基輔發癲嗎？當然不是。隻是他們對戰爭的認知顯然比那些坐在椅子上寫作或者頂多在烏克蘭酒店和餐廳裏寫作的人更清晰。
（圖片來源：TopLeadEU）
正如杜普伊研究所所指出的，烏克蘭的地麵部隊總數約為575,000名士兵：其中包括50萬名武裝部隊（AFU）、30,000名海軍陸戰隊員和45,000名空降部隊。如果將國土防衛部隊和國民警衛隊也計算在內，總人數將大幅增加。
在我們穿越全國的旅途中——從西部地區到與白俄羅斯和德涅斯特河沿岸接壤的地區，途經其內陸城市、貝薩拉比亞及黑海，尤其是在頓巴斯地區這裏——我們多次確認了這些估算，這些數據在2025年版的《軍事平衡》中有報道。
對於俄羅斯聯邦來說，駐紮在烏克蘭的綜合地麵部隊、海軍陸戰隊、私人軍事承包商（PMC）和空降部隊總數為594,000人。這個數字正在下降，考慮到之前的報道（如杜普伊研究所、2025年《軍事平衡》、Mediazona/Meduza、RUSI、CNA等）顯示約為700,000人。雙方每月征兵人數均在30,000名，但莫斯科在戰場上留下了人數要多得多。由於死亡和嚴重受傷，目前俄羅斯的不可逆損失接近120萬人，每天的傷亡人數高達千人。
俄羅斯的麵積是烏克蘭的28.3倍，但人口僅是烏的四倍。烏克蘭幾乎已經持續征兵近四年。而俄羅斯尚未這樣做，以至於不得不從40多個國家招募誌願者。
由於損失慘重，莫斯科被迫在波克羅夫斯克這裏部署預備役部隊。
你隻需要到這裏來就能理解這一點。
（圖：這就是俄羅斯聯邦如何摧毀烏克蘭民用基礎設施的——版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
然而，真正壓倒性的，是俄羅斯在火力上的優勢。正如我們在所有最新的報道中確認的那樣，雙方的火力比約為1.8:1，盡管俄羅斯兵力僅多出20%，但發射的炮彈數量卻多出80%。
而我們僅談論的是火炮和反炮火。
昨日我們討論了高爆無人機、滑翔炸彈和各種類型導彈的統計數據：這些數據顯示了俄羅斯的明顯優勢。這些烏克蘭的不足早已為人所知卻沒有解決，顯然是西方所擔負的責任。
（圖：戰略和國際研究中心（CSIS）的這張圖表極大地解釋了當前形勢——數據和圖形由戰略和國際研究中心（CSIS）提供）
（圖片來源：TopLeadEU）
麵對許多烏克蘭軍事夥伴的撤離，我們看到一種不光彩的理由浮出水麵，這種理由是由克裏姆林宮的敘事所推動的：“烏克蘭缺乏兵力，必須動員更多。”
翻譯過來就是：將就吧。
（圖：我在烏克蘭頓巴斯的戰區 – 版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
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