ere’s an assessment of the likelihood that Elon Musk’s proposed pay-package for Tesla, Inc. will win shareholder approval on November 6:
Why it seems very likely
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Several analysts estimate ~90% or higher chance of approval. For instance, one commentary puts the odds at roughly 90%. zacks.com+2teslarati.com+2
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Betting‐market data (at least one platform) shows a figure around 94% in favour of approval. teslarati.com+1
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Key shareholders and supporters publicly favour the proposal. For example, supporter Cathie Wood expects the vote will “pass decisively”. Business Insider
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The board and management are actively lobbying and making the case that Musk’s continued leadership is critical — signalling they believe they can deliver the votes. newsweek.com
? Why there’s still some risk
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Two major proxy‐advisory firms — Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) and Glass Lewis — have recommended voting against the package, citing concerns about governance and size. Reuters+1
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Approval would require gathering support across a broad spectrum of shareholders (institutional + retail), and the size of the package (up to about $1 trillion, if all milestones are met) brings reputational and structural issues. finance.yahoo.com+1
My estimate
Putting the above together, I’d estimate the probability of approval at about 90-95%. Given the strong favourable signals, I lean toward the upper end of that range — perhaps around 92-94%.
