Yes, you should bet on “YES” — Elon Musk will get his $1 trillion pay package approved on November 6, 2025.
Current Market Odds (as of Oct 31, 2025)
| Platform | Yes Price | Implied Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | $0.93 | 93% | ~$32K |
| Kalshi | $0.91 | 91% | ~$18K |
A $100 bet on “YES” at 93¢ returns ~$107.50 (7.5% profit) if approved.
Why “YES” Is the Smart Bet
| Factor | Evidence |
|---|---|
| Retail Shareholders Dominate | ~60–70% of Tesla’s float is retail. They voted 73% YES in 2018 and are even more mobilized now via X, Reddit, and Tesla’s app. |
| Institutional “No” Votes Are Tiny | CalPERS (0.1% of shares) and a few others oppose — negligible impact. Index funds (Vanguard, BlackRock) are split or neutral. |
| Musk’s Leverage | He’s hinted at leaving Tesla if rejected — a nuclear option that terrifies shareholders. Stock would crater 20–40% on “No.” |
| Board & Proxy Support | Tesla’s board (including Kimbal Musk, Robyn Denholm) unanimously backs the package. ISS/Glass Lewis opposition is ignored by retail. |
| Precedent | 2018 package passed 73–27%. This one is identical in structure, just re-ratified after Delaware court ruling. |
Risk of “No” (7% chance)
- Only if retail turnout collapses and institutions coordinate a surprise boycott.
- Unlikely: Tesla’s app shows record proxy voting (already >50% of float submitted, per X posts from verified shareholders).
